“Now, Moore looks just like the unpredictable non-establishment approved candidate McConnell stated he was all along.”
McConnell has handled this controversy with a keen understanding of the existing tenor of the united states. Remember that Monday, McConnell didn’t simply demand Moore to step aside from the competition. He used the very politically appropriate term for responding to sexual assault allegations nowadays by uttering the term, “I believe the ladies, yes.”
All the following likely scenarios favor McConnell:
If Moore won’t stage down and he loses to Democrat Doug Jones, he’ll become the 1st Republican Senate candidate to lose an election in Alabama since 1990 when the very conservative anti-abortion, anti-gun control incumbent Democrat Howell Heflin defeated Bill Cabaniss. If so, McConnell will be able to suggest that Republican applicants he doesn’t support aren’t even safe bets in the reddest of says. And which will give him a huge leg through to Steve Bannon who is unashamedly owning a national campaign to perform challengers to McConnell supporters in the 2018 midterm election primaries.
If Moore will withdraw from the competition, whether his Republican replacement wins or loses McConnell may credibly claim that all of this happened too late to salvage the problem. Write-in promotions, as anyone replacing Moore at this late stage would need to mount, are always a significant long shot.
If Moore somehow wins, there are growing calls from Republicans to expel him from the Senate. If that work is successful, and with Democrats taking part this expulsion vote it’s an excellent bet it might be, in that case Alabama Republican Governor Kay Ivey would have the energy to handpick Moore’s replacement with most likely another Republican. In this scenario, McConnell offers his cake and reaches keep his 52-48 GOP majority in the Senate also.
Sadly in politics, also horrific allegations of sexual assault and preying on underage victims only seem to be to elicit politically-centered responses. McConnell and several other establishment politicians are piling on Moore, and it’s hard not notice that they’re doing this to a man who offers squarely been threatening that establishment his whole career.
It may be cynical to believe McConnell doesn’t treatment all that much about the truth of the sexual misconduct allegations against Moore apart from what they mean for him politically. But this is a consummate politician who has shown all the signs of craving posture and title total else.
But it’s an empty name and a false crown. McConnell is definitely savvy at keeping the Senate Republican leadership posture, but what does he need to express for it apart from the confirmation of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court? Not much.
If he had any true shame, McConnell would have stepped down as majority leader when your time and effort to repeal and replace Obamacare failed this past summer. The complete point of being majority leader is normally to wield the energy of the majority party in the higher chamber to get essential bills exceeded. McConnell proved he can’t do this, period. Even taxes reform is apparently in danger.
And remember, McConnell has been majority leader since January 2015. Which means this isn’t just about the problems in coordinating legislative initiatives with the haphazard Trump administration. McConnell was likewise struggling to work out any sort of cope with President Obama during the first two years of his period as Senate leader.
At some time, Senate Republicans and Senate Republican applicants should come to the realization that McConnell’s obsession for personal vitality trumps everything else. It’s something that’s very clear in this Moore mess, was clear during the Obamacare repeal fiasco, and will likely play a significant role in the current battle for taxes reform.
So if you are a Republican or all American who wants to see some progress in Washington, you needn’t shed a tear for Roy Moore’s sinking ship. But everyone should be concerned that the largest roadblock to progress remains to be a politician like Mitch McConnell who’ll do just about anything to continue to keep his job, no matter how ineffective he is at actually doing it.
Commentary simply by Jake Novak, CNBC.com senior columnist. Comply with him on Twitter @jakejakeny.
For more insight from CNBC contributors, follow @CNBCopinion on Twitter.